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Jayhawks and Longhorns duke it out in Austin

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/08/2010 - Austin, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A pair of Big 12 heavyweights collide in Austin this evening, as the top-ranked Kansas Jayhawks take on the ninth-ranked Texas Longhorns from the Frank Erwin Center.

Bill Self's Jayhawks sit atop the Big 12 standings with a flawless 8-0 record. The team has won 22 of its 23 games on the year and enters this tilt with an eight-game win streak in tow, including Saturday's 75-64 win over Nebraska in Lawrence. The victory extended the nation's longest homecourt winning streak to 55 games.

The Longhorns looked like the team to beat in the Big 12 just a few weeks ago, but they have hit a wall of late, losing four of their last six games, including an 80-71 setback at Oklahoma on Saturday. With the loss, Texas fell to 5-3 in league play.

These are the two winningest programs in conference play since the inception of the Big 12, with Kansas posting a league-best 180 league wins and Texas ranking second with 150. This is the 23rd all-time meeting between these two teams, with Kansas holding a 16-6 series advantage, including wins in each of the last two meetings.

The Jayhawks forced Nebraska into 19 turnovers and shot an efficient .481 from the floor, marking the team's 55th consecutive win at the Allen Fieldhouse. Marcus Morris led the way with his fourth double-double this season, finishing with 20 points and 11 rebounds. Sherron Collins added 17 points and six assists for Kansas, which remained unbeaten in league play. The Jayhawks have been able to rack up the victories thanks to stellar play at both ends of the floor. The team boasts of an impressive +21.0 scoring margin (leads the nation), averaging 83.7 ppg, while allowing just 62.7. KU has certainly been efficient shooting the ball, converting 49.3 percent from the floor, with four players currently averaging double figures. It starts with Collins, an All- American candidate with the ability to create for himself (15.6 ppg) and others (team-high 98 assists). Morris, a sophomore, and Xavier Henry, a freshman, are next at 13.0 ppg, while junior Cole Aldrich (11.6 ppg, 10.3 rpg) rounds things out with his dominant play inside.

The Longhorns are definitely capable of hanging with Kansas at the offensive end, as Texas comes into this week averaging a steady 84.1 ppg on 48-percent efficiency from the field. The key to this game may be the battle inside between KU's Aldrich and UT's standout Damion James. The Big 12's all-time leading rebounder, James is a force down low, averaging a double-double with team-highs of 17.8 points (sixth in the league) and 11.0 rebounds per game (leads the league). The 6-7 senior gets perimeter support from Avery Bradley (12.5 ppg), J'Covan Brown (9.4 ppg) and Jordan Hamilton (9.3 ppg), while big man Dexter Pittman (11.4 ppg, 6.2 rpg, team-high 48 blocks) helps out in the paint. Texas was its own worst enemy in Norman this past weekend, as the team shot just .417 from the floor and a miserable 10-of-27 from the free-throw line (.370) in a nine-point loss to the Sooners. Bradley did his best to keep the Longhorns in it, finishing with 21 points. James just missed a double- double with 12 points and nine rebounds, while Gary Johnson did complete the feat, coming off the bench with 11 points and 10 boards. Pittman tallied eight points and grabbed a game-high 13 rebounds in the loss.


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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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